Hope for the Future
February 1st, 2006Regardless of what happens on the national political stage, things are coming back on the business front. Particularly the future of the Internet and computing in general.
I went to a venture conference: People were positive again.
I go to the blogs: There’s new products aplenty, many with environmental and social progress built-in.
I go to the stores: Design is improving, which means people are investing in imagination, esthetics, and beauty.
I drive through suburbia: Architecture is regaining detail. Concrete tilt-ups have architectural embellishments added on, instead of just being boxes. New buildings have increased variation and style. Parking lots are less rectilinear, and often feature natural streams with actual plants instead of just running water under the parking lots and calling it “drainage.”
I watch TV and find people on HGTV, Discovery Channel, TLC redesigning their homes in elegant and creative ways. I see “Extreme Homes” and “Rezoned” properties celebrated! And, on my favorite show, I see Engineering and Science celebrated and made fun… and assumptions of the ages turned into real-world analysis and observation: MythBusters!
We need a political version of MythBusters!
Let’s see the actual performance of Trickle Down Economics (also known as “piss on the little guy”). Let’s see the Laffer Curve laughed at! You might not recall that Arthur Laffer drove the economic theory of the Reagan administration with a little curve drawn on a napkin. If you do remember, maybe you don’t remember that he did it to get across the idea to one Dick Cheney, who was too dense to get it without pictures. What he still didn’t get is that the curve didn’t mean a whole lot.
Let’s test the theory of: “Blow up a middle east country and see if the pieces, when they fall from the sky, automatically form democracy!” Oh, yeah, that’s what Iraq and Palestine are about. Oh yeah, it doesn’t work. Oh well, keep blowing things up anyway.
Let’s test the theory that concentrating the most toxic substance known to man, by the ton, and heating water to generate power is a good idea. Oops. Now we have tons of toxic waste and can’t get rid of it. Oops. Most of the power we generate is lost in transmission on the power grid. Well, it’s still better than Hippies with solar panels… Well, no.
Let’s deregulate everything: no rules, no enforcement, the market will decide! Oh, yeah: Savings & Loans, Enron, The ‘29 stock crash, the 2000ish dotcom crash, the great depression, the $3/gallon gas prices, GM and Ford bankrupt, Airlines bankrupt, mad cow disease, water shortages, workers injured, crippled, and killed on the job… what’s next? Keep the Repugnicans, and you’ll see the spiral continue. Hire Democrats and it might get back to normal levels. Hire smart people, regardless of their hair, whether they look French, or are “boring”, and we might get a good country again. One we can take pride in. One that doesn’t torture people.
There are two (or more) Americas. Liberal. Conservative. But there’s only one functional America. It is made up of optimistic, idealistic people and looking to solve problems, not run from them or pretend they don’t exist. They don’t care where an idea comes from, if it works. They pay people fairly, treat people fairly, and understand that individuals thrive if everyone does better. Not just if individuals can act in purely selfish ways.
Look at the 90’s in the U.S. Amid the rise of conservatism was a progressive streak a mile wide. As a result—while there was a widening of the difference between rich and poor—the poor improved their lot: They made 1/3 more in that decade, relative to the cost of living. The lesson is that the rich got richer and the poor got richer, too. Now that we have conservatives in control, the poor are getting poorer. And the rich aren’t doing as well either.
Why? It’s simple: People who are doing better spend more on the little (and big) extras. The extras constitute the difference between a baseline economy (food, housing, clothing, fuel, transportation) and a vibrant economy (restaurants, organics, elegant homes, nice appliances, fashion, driving machines, personal statements, road trips, vacations, family reunions). All the latter items constitute Business Opportunities: choice, variation, personalization, aesthetics, art, design, gourmet, lifestyle… you name it. Without these opportunities you have little square houses, little square businesses, downward price pressures, downward wage pressures, utilitarian scrimp and save.
Spend time in the San Francisco Bay Area, San Diego, Roseville, then travel to Kansas or central Illinois. See the difference. Conservatism makes for a baseline economy (in Kansas). Progressives and Liberals make for a vibrant economy. It’s the economy, stupid. Of course… a vibrant economy may also be more wasteful. This is a cautionary note. But it is also about solving problems. And waste is not automatic.
There is a creative culture out there, and it’s moving on without conservative America. And, it will win. That is my hope for the future.

